IRAN’s Nuclear Program

Iran’s decision to launch more than 300 missiles and drones in its first direct attack on Israeli soil this month showed an appetite for risk that is putting renewed focus on Tehran’s nuclear program and whether it will continue to refrain from developing a bomb. Close observers of Iran’s nuclear development have long believed the country’s top leaders have calculated that the costs of building a bomb outweigh the benefits. As a threshold nuclear power with weapon capabilities within reach, Iran already en[1]joys considerable deterrence power without risking the war that could come if an attempt to build a bomb is detected. But that thesis has been shaken this year. As tensions with Israel grew, top Iranian officials have made a string of statements hinting that Tehran is close to mastering the technicalities of building a bomb. Hours before Israel hit back at Iran, a senior officer in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Tehran could reverse its restraint on building a bomb if Israel struck its nuclear facilities. Israel’s limited response went after targets around Isfahan, where Iran has nuclear facilities, but didn’t attack those sites directly. “The escalation between Iran and Israel may strengthen Iranian calls for weaponization,” said Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies. “So, while the risks of such a move continue to outweigh the advantages, the Iranian leadership is more likely to reconsider its nuclear approach than previously.” Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons but has a policy of never confirming or denying their existence. Before this month’s direct strike, Iran had primarily con[1]fronted Israel via a network of regional proxies and has used the threat of engaging those militias, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, to deter more-aggressive action by Israel. The exchange of attacks on each other’s territory has left the foes in a more dangerous competition as the new rules of engagement firm up, analysts say. Iran’s failure to damage Israeli military sites during this month’s attacks could persuade Tehran to seek a more powerful deterrent. Zimmt says challenges in controlling and operating the proxy network, whose interests don’t always line up with Tehran’s, also could add pressure on Iran to pursue a bomb. Iranian officials have fuelled such thinking with a pattern of references to the country’s near-nuclear capabilities. U.S. intelligence services and international officials have said as recently as March they don’t believe Iran has resumed the nuclear-weapons program it is thought to have pursued in the 1990s and 2000s. Yet the country has moved forward on several fronts needed to develop a bomb, including via studies and activities that it says are civilian work. —

Source WSJ: Carrie Keller-Lynn