Israel, Iran, and the United States – The Long War

The relationship between Israel, Iran, and the United States has evolved dramatically over the past century, shifting from strategic alliance to deep-seated hostility and indirect conflict.

Historical Background

• After Israel's founding in 1948, Iran and Israel were close allies, united by shared interests and regional isolation. This partnership included oil trade, military cooperation, and joint infrastructure projects, with both nations also receiving significant support from the United States as part of a broader strategy to counter Soviet influence in the Middle East6.
• The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran fundamentally changed the regional dynamic. The new Iranian regime adopted a confrontational stance toward both Israel and the United States, ending the previous alliance. The US-Iran relationship further deteriorated after the hostage crisis, and Israel began to view Iran as its primary existential threat6.

The “Shadow War” and Escalation

• Since the 1980s, Israel and Iran have engaged in a “shadow war,” marked by covert operations, cyberattacks, targeted assassinations, and proxy conflicts across the region. Israel has targeted Iranian assets in Syria and Iran’s nuclear program, while Iran has supported proxy groups in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen to attack Israeli and US interests3.
• Recent years have seen this conflict become more overt, with direct missile and drone attacks exchanged between Iran and Israel, notably in 2024, raising fears of a wider regional war57.

1.    US Role and Strategic Calculations

• The United States has historically backed Israel with military and diplomatic support, while simultaneously oscillating between pressure and engagement with Iran, as seen in the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA)56.
• US policy has often been cautious, seeking to avoid direct military confrontation with Iran, even as it seeks to deter Iranian nuclear ambitions. American officials have signaled reluctance to be drawn into a direct conflict, preferring containment and diplomatic measures4.
• In scenarios where Israel might strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, the US is expected to initially distance itself from direct involvement, though its interests would quickly align with Israel’s in managing escalation and minimizing regional instability47.

Current Dynamics and Future Scenarios

• The conflict’s trajectory is shaped by the strategic objectives of each party: Israel seeks security and deterrence; Iran aims for regional influence and the isolation of Israel; the US prioritizes Israeli security while avoiding a major regional war7.
• Four main scenarios are envisioned: continued shadow conflict, escalation to open war, negotiated de-escalation, or a precarious status quo maintained by mutual restraint and external mediation (especially by the US)7.
• Despite periodic flare-ups, a fragile balance has often been restored through a combination of military deterrence, diplomatic efforts, and the influence of broader US regional policy73.

Conclusion

The Israel-Iran-US triangle remains volatile, with deep ideological, strategic, and historical roots. While outright war has been avoided, the risk of escalation persists, especially as both Israel and Iran continue to test the limits of deterrence and as US engagement in the region fluctuates. The interplay of direct and proxy conflicts, nuclear ambitions, and shifting alliances ensures that the “long war” will continue to shape Middle Eastern geopolitics for the foreseeable future.